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Prediction for CME (2022-04-27T14:53:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2022-04-27T14:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19953/-1 CME Note: An eruption from the vicinity of AR2996 was observed using Stereo-A EUVI imagery around 2022-04-27T14:00Z, since a maneuver/calibration at SDO was occurring at the time of the eruption. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-04-29T23:27Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 5.0 Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-04-30T01:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h) Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0 Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office) Prediction Method Note: Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 2.2 Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 27/04/2022 21:38 Radial velocity (km/s): 830 Longitude (deg): 39W Latitude (deg): 34N Half-angular width (deg): 44 Notes: Fast CME with likely arrival/glancing blow on 30th seems to catch up and overtake the previous CME. Space weather advisor: Lawrence HowardLead Time: 46.58 hour(s) Difference: -1.55 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-04-28T00:52Z |
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